Swiss Battery May Lose Power

Swiss energy companies are determined to turn the country into a ‘battery for Europe’. Vast investments are made in big-scale water power projects. But it is not certain they will eventually pay off.

With the decision for a nuclear shutdown, the spotlight in Switzerland and Germany has switched to renewable energy sources. In Germany there’s a massive boost to solar and wind energy production, while Switzerland’s energy companies focus on increasing their storage capacities in the Alps.

About 11 percent of Europe’s electricity flows through Switzerland. The Swiss electricity industry stresses the advantages of the country’s central location in Europe and its topography. On the European energy map, Swiss mountain lakes could function as a huge battery for unsteadily generated renewable energy, and generate high revenues.

Natural and artificial mountain lakes are an essential component of Switzerland’s energy supply. Water power makes up 57 percent of the country’s electricity production. Some of these lakes aren’t just natural water reservoirs though, but serve as basins for pumped-storage hydro power plants (PSPs).

The system is simple and has long been a good business. Throughout the day, cheap, spare electricity is bought on the market and then used to pump water from a lower reservoir to a basin further up the mountain. At times when demand for electricity is high, stored water is released and drives turbines that produce electricity, which can then be sold on the market for a higher price.

PSPs function like huge batteries.

Currently, 11 such plants are running in Switzerland with a combined 1400 megawatt capacity. Three other projects are under construction, to increase Swiss pumped-storage capacity to 3500 megawatts by 2017. Two more PSPs are being planned: ‘Grimsel 3′ at the Grimsel Pass in the Bernese Alps and ‘Lago Bianco’ at the Bernina Pass in Grisons.

“The symbiosis between nature and technology has defined the character of this landscape,” writes the Grimsel region’s tourism agency. Ernst Baumberger, press officer at the regional energy company KWO looks at Grimsel through two lenses: while praising the region’s beauty, Baumberger points out that a plenty of precipitation, glaciation, rock as building ground and the immense altitude difference make it ideal for water power use. KWO put its first power plant at Grimsel in operation 80 years ago.

The company recently was licenced to implement its 1.2 billion Swiss francs project ‘KWOplus’, including the construction of a second PSP (‘Grimsel 3′). The plant will have a 660 megawatt capacity, which is about the power of an average Swiss nuclear plant. The plan is controversial, both politically and economically.

“Switzerland doesn’t need any additional PSPs. There’s neither a lack of batteries, nor a grid stability problem,” argues Jürg Buri, managing director of the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES). He says that no country operates as many flexible power stations as Switzerland.

Environmental organisations say that mainly cheap electricity from coal and nuclear plants is used for the pumping and that during the process, about a quarter of the energy is lost. Even worse, at windy times, PSPs keep coal and nuclear plants running.

There’s nothing green about pumped-storage hydroelectricity anyway. “If today’s PSPs were supplied with clean energy, that business would be unprofitable,” Buri says. “The revenues of the peak current wouldn’t make up for the purchase price and the energy lost for pumping.”

According to the licence, KWO is obliged to run Grimsel 3 with as much renewable energy as “economically and technically possible.” No fixed share was defined however. KWO’s Baumberger stresses that in the long term, the company’s PSPs should run solely with green electricity. “However, the primary criteria will remain the profitability,” he adds.

While the energy company praises Grimsel 3 as an important contribution to the security of energy supply for the country, Jürg Buri claims that the pumped-storage business further strains transmission lines. “In fact, to run Grimsel 3, even more lines would have to be built, something which people often forget about.”

KWO is currently busy preparing the necessary building applications. In a next step, the management board will discuss the profitability prospects and decide on the investments. “Concerning Grimsel 3, the shareholders are a bit cautious,” KWO’s spokesperson says. “They fear that with the current electricity prices, the investments may not pay off.”

The Swiss Association for Water Management (SWV) views investments in PSPs as risky and their profitability as volatile. At the Bernische Kraftwerke (BKW), which holds half of KWO’s shares and manages electricity trade, the media officer declines to comment on the prospects of pumped-storage hydroelectricity. It’s no secret though that Swiss energy companies are deeply concerned by the volatile electricity price and the declining price difference between peak and off-peak current.

That difference is essential for the PSP business model, which relies on providing expensive peak current, especially at noon time. Nowadays, subsidised wind and solar energy from other European states are conquering that market, challenging and flattening the prices of peak current and thereby reducing the profit rates of PSP-based energy providers.

SES’s Jürg Buri is sure that Switzerland’s ‘battery boost’ will soon come to an end. “Neither Lago Bianco, nor Grimsel 3 will be built. The economic risks are too high.” He stresses that both projects primarily target the European market. “Don’t forget that besides decreasing electricity trade revenues, Swiss PSPs are further challenged by the increasing number of flexible power plants in Europe.”

Ernst Baumberger explains that his company has different options to move on with Grimsel 3. “If the situation on the electricity market worsens, we may split the building of Grimsel 3 in various stages. At each stage, market developments could be analysed before moving on with construction.”

In contrast to environmental organisations, KWO’s Baumberger remains optimistic. He stresses that in the light of booming wind and solar energy in Europe, the demand for further storage capacities will grow. “What Switzerland so far offers in terms of energy storage is nothing but a drop in the ocean.”

While opinions on the future of Swiss pumped-storage hydroelectricity differ sharply, one thing seems sure: the industry’s prospects lie in the hands of European, not Swiss politicians and businessmen.

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

Melting Permafrost Threatens Swiss Villages

Melting glaciers are the most visible effect of global warming in the Swiss Alps. Meanwhile, permafrost is invisible and melting too, often causing rockfall and massive debris flows, ultimately threatening mountain villages.

Guttannen, home to 310 residents, is a tiny village in the Bernese Alps, the last one that travellers drive through on the way up to Grimsel Pass. It’s spring and the snow is retreating from the steep slopes of the valley. As the pass is still closed, calm reigns in the picturesque village centre. Only cowbells and the rushing of the nearby Aar river break the silence.

For some residents though, living in Guttannen has become rather uneasy and, on the long term, even dangerous. The root cause of the peril lies further uphill, in the northeastern flank of the 3,282 metres high Ritzlihorn. In July 2009, a huge rockfall had occurred and since then, massive debris flows have roared downhill each summer.

“These mudslides as well as the volume of transported rubble have grown from year to year,” says Nils Hählen, hydraulic engineer at the cantonal public works service. “The debris partly ends up in the Aar, lifting and widening its channel.” Within three years, 630,000 cubic metres were transported into the river, increasingly endangering civil infrastructure.

In summer, after heavy rainfall, the only road leading through the narrow valley often has to be temporarily closed. A house near the river already had to be taken down, the local sewage treatment plant may be next. Since 2010, the debris flows reach as far as the hamlet Boden, threatening ten houses and 30 inhabitants. “The next few mudslides won’t be a big problem,” says Guttannen council leader Hans Abplanalp. However, some houses would effectively be threatened in two to five, others in five to seven years, he adds.

One of these homes belongs to Martin Leuthold. “I’ve lived here for 60 years and my father was already a farmer here,” he says. Leuthold claims he has no fear, as he’s grown up with the moods of nature. Nevertheless, the farmer doesn’t ignore the peril: “Perhaps nothing will happen for the next 10 years, but maybe this summer it could all rumble down on us. Nobody knows.”

Nearby, Hans von Weissenfluh lives less than 20 metres away from the river. “The threat is real, we can see it,” he says. Von Weissenfluh remembers well how impressive amounts of water and debris came down the Aar last summer. “Only five years ago, the river channel was much more narrow,” he notices.

Engineers, geologists and glaciologists assume permafrost melt to be the underlying problem. Permafrost is underground material such as rock or rubble that permanently remains at or below zero degrees centigrade. Ice is a possible, but not a necessary ingredient. “The issue is, that permafrost occurrence is generally not known,” says Nils Hählen. There are maps designed on calculated probabilities, but as the hydraulic engineer explains, in any case things have to be evaluated locally.

In northeastern mountain slopes, permafrost may occur roughly above 2,600 meters altitude. Scientists estimate that about 5 percent of Switzerland’s area contains permafrost. It stabilises steep rocky or scree slopes in the high mountains and protects them from erosion by serving as a kind of natural putty. When permafrost melts, the result may be rockfalls and debris flows. “The lower permafrost zones are the most vulnerable,” explains Hählen.

He locates the cause of permafrost melt in rising air temperatures which have been measured over the past years in the European Alps. Jeannette Nötzli, glaciologist at the University of Zurich, mentions that atmosphere and underground permafrost are often not directly coupled. Ice content and changes in surface coverage can mask atmospheric signals. Nötzli heads the Coordination Office of the Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network PERMOS.

“As PERMOS’ systematic monitoring commenced in 2000, most of our data cover around a decade, whereas for robust statements about trends in climate science typically a 30-year period is considered,” Nötzli points out. “However,” the researcher adds, “much of our data points to permafrost degradation. For example, in the past three years active layer depths in summer have increased with new record values at many of the observed sites.”

Reliable forecasting of permafrost changes isn’t possible. In the case of Guttannen, experts limit their predictions to the next year. Hählen expects that in the long term, debris flows from the Ritzlihorn will stop, as ultimately the catchment area in the flank is limited.

Removing the rubble from the valley floor and the Aar is no option. It’s too risky, but also too costly. Additionally, dumping places in the region are limited. Only to remove the current rubble from the river would cost more than 18 million Swiss Francs and accumulate to at least 50,000 lorry loads.

There’s not much hope for the residents of Boden. Ultimately, they’ll have to leave their homes and resettle somewhere else. Hans Abplanalp, the council president, has talked to all persons concerned. “Nearly all of them want to stay in Guttannen,” he says. “We can offer them land and homes to buy.”

Boden resident Hans von Weissenfluh plans to move up to Guttannen as soon as possible. Others such as Martin Leuthold are more hesitant. He wouldn’t mind living somewhere else in the village, but is reluctant to tear down his house and move all the belongings.

“That’s a lot of work,” he says. Leuthold fears he will not be fully compensated. He’d only be compensated for his stable if he built a new one in another place. “I wouldn’t know what to build a new stable for, as I’ll soon be retired.”

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

But What in Place of Nuclear Power

In the wake of Fukushima, the Swiss government decided last year to slowly, but definitely phase out nuclear energy. But the new energy strategy for the next decade has drawn criticism, especially from environmental organisations.

Switzerland’s household electricity relies largely on nuclear and hydro power. Five nuclear power plants, of which the last will be shut down in 2034, currently produce 40.7 percent of the country’s electricity. Making up for this large share once it’s phased out requires a fundamental change in Switzerland’s energy policy, an “ambitious but feasible” undertaking as the government keeps saying.

Deciding on the nuclear shutdown is one thing, but implementing it and defining concrete measures is a more complicated task. The Swiss Federal Council has outlined its energy policy framework for the next decades under the title ‘Energy Package 2050’. The main pillars of the strategy are reduction of energy consumption, increasing efficiency of energy use, and scaling up renewable energy.

The government has calculated that by 2050, energy consumption could be reduced by 28 percent compared to 2000. Potential for reduction is mainly seen in buildings rehabilitation and in the industrial and services sectors. EnAW, the energy agency of the Swiss economy, has presented a study including scenarios for increasing electricity efficiency. According to EnAW, Swiss companies could save 7 twh (terrawatt hours) by 2050.

“That’s disappointing,” says Jürg Buri, managing director of the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES), which pushes for an ecological and sustainable energy policy. “Swiss businesses could easily save twice as much electricity by 2050.” There is potential already, he says, to save 7 twh with more efficient industrial motors.

SES, Greenpeace, Pro Natura and the WWF reacted with a joint statement to the government’s announcement, saying the steps taken by the Federal Council are too small. Patrick Hofstetter, climate policy campaigner at WWF Switzerland calls the new energy strategy “unambitious”, claiming that there’s much more potential to increase energy usage efficiency in the economy as well as in households.

A strong instrument such as a regulatory tax is lacking, he says. “Wasting electricity is still too attractive for companies and households…Taking measures to save energy requires knowhow that few people have, and monetary savings are often small.”

The Federal Council admits that the package of measures it presented suffice only to fulfil about half the goals set for 2050. Swiss Energy Minister Doris Leuthard ays she would be more than happy if more energy could be saved than planned.

The second pillar of the new energy policy strategy is renewable energy. The Federal Council estimates that production could be increased by a third by 2050. But here too, views differ drastically. There is huge difference between the government’s estimates and those calculated by environmental groups concerning solar energy. The latter claim that renewable energy is often reduced to hydropower, neglecting the immense potential of solar energy.

Wind, biomass and the sun currently only provide 0.26 percent of Switzerland’s electricity. In Germany, those three energy sources held a 16 percent share in the past year’s electricity mix. WWF Switzerland estimates that solar energy could be scaled up by 15 twh by 2035, which is five times the government’s goal.

“In Germany, in December 2011 alone 3 twh of solar energy went online,” says Hofstetter. “So, what Germany did within one month, Switzerland expects to do in 23 years.”

Swiss Energy Minister Doris Leuthard earned even more disapproval when she said that if saving efforts failed, electricity would either have to be imported, or up to six combined-cycle gas plants would have to be built to make up for the energy gap caused by the nuclear shutdown.

WWF’s Patrick Hofstetter recalls the latest outlook published by the International Energy Agency. “It stated that in order to reach the two-degree target (on warming of the planet) no investment in fossil energy infrastructure should be made after 2017 worldwide. The Swiss plan to invest in fossil energy therefore is quite awkward.”

Environmental groups claim that the risks of nuclear energy shouldn’t be replaced by the risks of climate change. Combined-cycle gas plants cause massive carbon dioxide emissions. “Taking into consideration the country’s CO2budget, the 30 million tons put out by each plant over the next 30 years would be far too much,” Hofstetter says.

The Federal Council is using the threat of combined-cycle gas plants to put pressure on the economy, but also on Swiss cantons and environmental groups: “If we want to expand renewable energy production, environmental organisations need to lessen their opposition to such projects,” the Swiss Energy Minister demanded.

WWF’s Hofstetter says the Federal Council is not right to argue that a more intense development of renewable energy is hindered by conflicts with nature and landscape protection. “It’s based on the prevailing idea that hydropower is the only renewable energy in Switzerland, which indeed is nearly fully developed.”

Hofstetter defends the environmental organisation’s right to appeal construction projects, which has recently come under increased pressure. “If that right falls, nobody would insist on the laws concerning nature to be respected.”

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

Some Swiss Parcels With Migrants In Them

Two years ago, a Nigerian asylum seeker died during a forced deportation attempt from Switzerland. Now, the prosecution has dismissed the case, leaving nobody responsible for the young man's death. Instead of re-assessing the deportation system, Swiss authorities prefer ignorance.

Six weeks of hunger strike had weakened Joseph Chiakwa, when nine policemen entered his cell at Zurich's deportation prison in the afternoon of March 17, 2010. The cops body-searched the Nigerian asylum seeker, tied his hands and put a boxing helmet on his head. In a nearby building, policemen constrained Chiakwa's arms and legs and tied the 29-year-old to a special wheelchair. For a long time, signs of discomfort were ignored. As a doctor finally arrived, Chiakwa had already died.

Joseph Chiakwa was subjected to a so-called 'Level-IV' deportation attempt. Having spent about a year in the deportation prison, Ibrahim Moses (name changed) says that he got nervous each time rumours of upcoming special flights made rounds. "You're afraid because in there you don't have anyone to fight for you," the West African asylum seeker explains. He witnessed how several inmates were forcefully deported.

"Usually the prison guards ask you to come to the second floor, without letting you know why. There they make you wait. Suddenly and by surprise, policemen overpower you." Usually, the victim is tied up and put in a separate cell, Moses tells. "Later they come for you; six or seven cops for one person. They make you dress (in) special clothes, handcuff you and take you to another building," the young West African says. "There they tie you up like a parcel before carrying you to the plane."

Moses himself faced a 'Level-II' deportation attempt. In this scenario, the handcuffed deportee is escorted by two policemen on a scheduled flight. "I resisted on the way to the plane," Moses says. A few years ago, even totally shackled people were occasionally deported on scheduled flights; so-called 'Level-III' deportations. These don't happen any more and so Moses was taken back to prison. "If you refuse being deported on a normal flight, they may put you as a parcel on a special flight the next time," the West African asylum seeker explains.

In 2011, Switzerland sent back 6,439 persons by air. In all 165 of these were 'Level-IV' cases on 33 special flights. In comparison to previous years, the number of such deportations has dropped, but Amnesty International's refugee coordinator Denise Graf says that still many 'Level-IV' deportations could be avoided. "They should be absolutely exceptional," she says, adding that preparation is often insufficient.

"In most cases, the total shackling of deportees is absolutely disproportionate," Graf points out. She explains that 'Level-IV' deportations carry risks and harm the deportees' human dignity. Amnesty demands that before any deportation attempt, a final, extensive conversation has to be held with the deportees. "The reasons that make a person resist deportation are many and often the problem could be solved easily."

Also, Graf refers to the principle of proportionality: "The police is obliged to always choose the least harming option. However, we observe that very often the harshest possible measures are applied." She says that in Chiakwa's case, nearly all police interventions were escalating.

In the wake of Joseph Chiakwa's death in 2010, the Swiss government paid 50,000 Swiss francs (55,000 dollars) to the victim's family. "As a humanitarian gesture" and "neither compensation, nor an admission of guilt," it stated. The family however was primarily interested in a serious investigation in Chiakwa's death.

Two forensic evaluations ordered by the prosecution of the canton of Zurich identified malfunctions of the victim's heart. "I don't find them plausible," comments Viktor Györffy, lawyer for Chiakwa's family. "When it comes to defining the exact heart disease leading to the death, the evaluations are even contradictory."

Based on an independent evaluation by a cardiologist, Györffy argues that relevant causes were ignored by the prosecution. "According to the cardiologist, Chiakwa's death was caused by the hunger strike combined with the immense stress during the 'Level-IV' deportation attempt," the lawyer says. He adds that even if a heart disease was concurrently causative, those responsible were culpable. "Nobody who's lost a relative in such a way would under these circumstances accept the dismissal of the case," says Györffy, who has filed an appeal against the prosecution's decision.

The lawyer is supported by the human rights group ‘augenauf'. Its speaker Rolf Zopfi regards the prosecution's investigation as biased. "Isn't it remarkable that a 29-year-old dies in the hands of the police and a heart disease is supposedly the sole cause, while all other factors are regarded as unfortunate and ultimately irrelevant?" he asks.

After Chiakwa's death in March 2010, Switzerland temporarily halted special deportation flights. But by June, all but those to Nigeria were resumed. The latter recommenced in January 2011, after bilateral problems were solved. Soon however, Swiss authorities faced criticism again, as the national TV station documented how policemen hit a Nigerian asylum seeker during a deportation attempt, while the police had stated that the concerned flight was carried out "without any incidents."

It is not just human rights organisations demanding independent monitoring of forced deportations. Since January 2011, Switzerland is obliged by the European Union's 'Return Directive' to "provide for an effective forced return monitoring system." No such system has been implemented, even though Swiss authorities had long been aware of the directive's upcoming adoption. Currently, only some deportation flights are monitored by observers who had already run a six-month pilot project for the Federal Office for Migration.

Amnesty's Denise Graf says that transparency and independence are fundamental for any monitoring system: "The observers can't just be another element inside the black box." Rolf Zopfi of 'augenauf' says that the monitoring pilot project doesn't question the proportionality of the system. His organisation considers 'Level-IV' deportations fundamentally dangerous, inhuman and disproportional and therefore categorically rejects them.

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

"Resistance Rises To Asylum Seekers"

Switzerland saw a 45 percent increase in asylum requests compared in 2011 to the year before. The country struggles to accommodate the new asylum seekers while efforts to put up new centres face fierce resistance by local people.

Shortly before Christmas a small number of asylum seekers were turned away at several asylum centres at the Swiss border. The events marked the peak of an anticipated shortage in host facilities for asylum seekers in the wake of the uprisings in North Africa.

From 2004 to 2010, between 10,000 and 16,000 asylum requests were filed each year. The uprising in Libya led to the re-opening of a key immigration route to Western Europe via Lampedusa in spring 2011. Latest statistics reveal a drastic increase in new asylum requests in Switzerland from 15,567 in 2010 to 22,551 in 2011.

In Switzerland, it's the cantons’ obligation to host asylum seekers. From October to December last year, the canton of Lucerne in central Switzerland had to find a way to accommodate nearly 400 new asylum seekers.

In Lucerne, the relief organisation Caritas is tasked to host and provide services to asylum seekers. Its manager Thomas Thali confirms that sufficient accommodation could be found in late 2011, but that in March 2012 one of their centres is closing down and replacement hasn't been found yet.

In Lucerne, newly arriving people are allocated to collective centres before being relocated to private apartments at the second stage. Caritas manager Thali explains that in comparison to finding apartments for asylum seekers, establishing new centres is provoking political resistance. "Nobody's interested in hearing how well already existing centres are in fact working," Thali regrets.

In Fischbach, a small village with 700 inhabitants, the cantonal authorities planned to establish a new centre by 2012 providing accommodation to 55 asylum seekers. As the plans were unveiled, many locals voiced strong opposition.

Guido Graf, head of the Department of Health and Social Affairs in Lucerne, says he understands people's fears. "We normally inform the communities and inhabitants before signing a rental agreement for a new centre. It's a difficult path as it provokes resistance and criticism," he admits.

Despite the resistance, the centre in Fischbach will be established, though smaller than projected. Nevertheless, the canton still needs up to 100 new places in centres. In Weggis, a lovely village with 4,000 inhabitants right at the Lake Lucerne, the cantonal authorities found a building they would like to turn into a centre for up to 60 asylum seekers. At a communal meeting, many locals expressed strong dissatisfaction.

Emil Grabherr, president of the local section of the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) says that he radically opposes any asylum centre in Weggis, as the village is a regional tourist magnet. Grabherr lives 800 metres from the chosen building and heads a neighbourhood committee.

"The centre would be situated right in the middle of a residential and villa area. Residents are afraid." Also, he thinks that the project is not in line with the zoning plan.

"But anyway," Grabherr says, "it seems those so-called asylum seekers are in fact economic migrants." To stress his argument, he lists the origins of the anticipated refugees. Among them are war-torn countries such as Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia and Iraq. "Therefore, we don't even have to talk about the issue," says the SVP politician.

Speaking on behalf of 'Asylnetz', an organisation observing asylum-related human rights violations in Lucerne, Felix Kuhn points out that over and over, the same old foe images are projected on the new groups of asylum seekers.

"It used to be people from Sri Lanka, Turkey and the Balkans, but now the stigmatisation targets refugees from Africa," he says. Kuhn adds that it's no longer just the parties on the right wing who mobilise against asylum seekers, but that exponents from the political middle have joined the chorus.

Caritas's Thomas Thali says that as long as political parties manage to profit from mobilisations against centres for asylum seekers, resistance will persist. "The image of asylum seekers is strongly influenced by the political debate and the media." In contrast, Thali explains, where people have direct social exchange with asylum seekers, a relaxed atmosphere prevails.

Moreno Casasola, secretary general of the refugee rights organisation 'Solidarité sans frontières' regrets that doors are already slammed in the faces of asylum seekers before arrive. "Instead of having a serious discussion on hosting asylum seekers, things tend to turn into a openly racist debate," he says, pointing to the village of Bettwil, where the locals' protest had attracted far right-wing hanger-ons.

In Casasola's view, provincial villages just aren't the right places for asylum seekers. "There, they're often very isolated and face suspicion and resistance by local inhabitants. It would be better to accommodate asylum seekers in cities."

In an effort to fight what it considers "asylum misery", Lucerne's SVP is now preparing a popular initiative demanding the locals' right to vote on new asylum centres. Also, it demands fully supervised container settlements for asylum seekers outside of densely populated communal areas.

Ironically, it was the SVP's former justice minister Christoph Blocher who in 2006 initiated the reduction of the country's accommodation for asylum seekers. It was a time of comparatively low numbers of asylum requests. Before then, annual numbers of more than 20,000 requests were quite normal.

Now the cantons pay the price for Blocher's austerity. "We had to give up various capacities that we now lack," Thali says. Lucerne's Health and Social Affairs Department has already drawn its conclusions from the current crisis. "In the long run, we'll have to acquire facilities again to regain our freedom of action," Guido Graf says. "It's easier for us to keep a building in reserve than to open a new centre in cases of need."

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

"Europe Headed for Water Crisis"

Future glacier retreat in the Alps could affect the hydrology of large streams more strongly than previously assumed, a new study shows. Water shortages in summer could become more frequent.

Even though their ice is called 'eternal', many alpine glaciers' lives may come to an end within this century. For 150 years, most of them have been more or less constantly retreating, and since the eighties, their shrinkage has visibly increased.

The Furka Pass in central Switzerland has long been awaiting its visitors with a special attraction. Just below the highest point of the pass, tourists may enter an ice grotto dug into the Rhone glacier to discover glacier life from the inside. Each year however, the grotto's entry can be found a few metres further downhill. Long-term measurements reveal that from 1879 to 2010, the Rhone glacier has lost 1266 metres of its original length.

The Swiss Alps are often called 'Europe's water tower'. Nearly 60 billion cubic metres of water are stored in its glaciers. Matthias Huss, glaciologist and senior lecturer at the Department of Geosciences at the University of Fribourg explains that glaciers fulfil a balancing function: "They release water exactly when we need it, while storing it in periods when we need it less."

In other words, glaciers store water during the cold and wet winter months. From May to September, snow and ice melt on the glacier surface and provide the water that is dearly needed during the hot and dry season. That same mechanism also balances year-to-year variations: in colder, wetter years glaciers accumulate water that is released in relatively hot and dry summers like in 2003.

The threat posed to alpine glaciers' essential contribution has long been recognised. However, a new study presented by Matthias Huss in the scientific journal 'Water Resources Research' found that the proportion of glacier water running down major European streams is larger than previously assumed.

"I have compared water runoff data from glaciers with actual runoff at gauges along the entire length of four major streams originating in the Swiss Alps," explains the glaciologist. His study is based on measurements along the Rhine, Rhone, Po and Danube rivers.

The comparison allowed Huss to determine the relative share of glacier water running down those streams. "Consequently, I was able to quantify how much the runoff of those streams could decrease in case the glaciers' contributions are entirely lost," he says.

One of the streams observed by Huss is the Rhone. Originating in the Upper Valais in Switzerland, the river passes through the Rhone Valley and Lake Geneva to France, finally reaching the Mediterranean Sea at the Camargue Delta near Arles. The Rhone's length is 813 kilometres, its drainage basin measures about 100,000 square kilometres.

In August, snowmelt runoff from non-glacierized regions of the catchment is small, while bare ice melt is most important. According to Huss's calculations, the 100-year average glacier contribution to the Rhone accounted for 25 percent of the total runoff. In August 2003, the share deriving from glacier storage change rose to 40 percent; a proportion not to be ignored during that extremely hot and dry summer.

At Switzerland's Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), researchers are well prepared to deal with the consequences of climate change for the Swiss water household. The FOEN recently started 'Project CCHydro'. The project name stands for climate change and hydrology in Switzerland. Based on current climate scenarios, the project aims to provide detailed forecasts on the hydrological cycle and runoffs in Switzerland for the coming decades.

Project director David Volken says that between 1996 and 2006, 0.9 billion cubic metres of water have melted from the glaciers yearly. He expects that until 2050, runoff from glaciers will increase, but then rapidly drop towards the end of the century.

"Because of the warming climate, snow melt will happen about a month earlier and rainfall will decrease 10 to 15 percent in summer," Volken adds. As a consequence, the rivers' runoff regime will change, he predicts. "There'll be more runoff in winter and less in summer. During hot summers, less water will be available in the future," the hydrologist warns.

Matthias Huss of the University of Fribourg also stresses that the current picture is deceptive. "Due to climate change, we currently get more water from the glaciers than normally, as they're melting. At first glance it looks like there's no problem," he says. But Huss warns that soon the picture will change and the remaining glaciers won't be able to provide enough water during the summer months.

Huss' glacier models are linked to specific climate scenarios. Diverging global warming estimates therefore affect prognoses regarding glacier shrinkage significantly.

The glaciologist admits that there are large uncertainties. "However," he says, "what's for sure is that glaciers will shrink massively. Even in an unlikely best-case climate scenario, glaciers will lose more than 70 percent of their size until the end of the century." And in the worst case? "There wouldn't be any glaciers any more at all."

Taking different glacier retreat scenarios into account, Huss estimates that currently glacierised basins might contribute 55 to 85 percent less water to stream flow runoff by the end of the 21st century. "Even if the climate could be stabilised at the current level," the glaciologist argues, "we'd witness drastic glacier retreat and their storage ability would either drop extremely or be lost totally."

As glacier shrinkage seems unstoppable, mankind will be forced to adapt to the new situation. Water shortages may occur more often and economic consequences may be harsh, the study warns. Especially the agricultural sector will face serious challenges, and communities may struggle to keep up drinking water supply.

The FOEN's Thomas Volken says that in the agricultural sector, water consumption efficiency has to be stepped up. He adds that adjustments in the cultivation of agricultural surface are inevitable, too.

As regards drinking water supply, Volken suggests its optimisation through regional integration and new strategies, such as linking drinking water networks to at least two independent resources. As additional measures, the hydrologist mentions the construction of additional dams in the mountains or systematic ground water accumulation.

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

"Swiss Bid Disputed Goodbye to Nuclear Energy"

Switzerland is witnessing a drastic turnaround in energy policy. Half a year ago, plans for the construction of new nuclear reactors were heavily debated. Now, three months after the disaster in Fukushima, the initial steps for a staged nuclear shutdown have been taken.

The Swiss government, the Federal Council, surprised many, when on May 25 it announced its decision to phase out nuclear energy in the medium term. All five Swiss nuclear reactors are to be shut down at the end of their operational lifespan without being replaced. According to the plan, the first power plant ('Beznau I'), the world's oldest pressurised water reactor still in service, would be disconnected by 2019, the last reactor ('Leibstadt') by 2034.

Along with the nuclear opt-out, the cabinet presented its 'Energy Strategy 2050'. Its main features include reducing energy consumption, strengthening energy research, and broadening electricity supply by boosting hydropower and renewable energies. Currently, Switzerland's nuclear power plants are producing 39 percent of the country's energy supply.

It's still a long and potentially bumpy road from the Federal Council's landmark decision to its actual implementation, however. First, the new energy strategy is to be submitted to both chambers of the Swiss parliament for debate. Then, concrete measures and the necessary draft laws have to be developed and formulated. These will be discussed by the parliament. It is widely expected that the Swiss voters will have the final say on the issue.

On Wednesday, the National Council gathered for a special session devoted to the government's new energy strategy. On behalf of the Social Democrats, National Councillor Eric Nussbaumer demanded the nuclear phase-out to take place earlier than proposed by the Federal Council.

"Operators pretend that their reactors can be kept in service for 50 or even 60 years, even though they were built for 40 years only," he said. Pointing at three Swiss reactors being among the world's oldest, Nussbaumer called it careless to keep them running until the end of their operational lifespan.

Fulvio Pelli, president of the Liberals, criticised the absence of concrete alternative plans to replace nuclear power. He stressed that his party was against building new reactors based on currently available technologies, but didn't want to ban nuclear technology forever.

"Nuclear energy is no technology of the future," replied Swiss Energy Minister Doris Leuthard. She argued that keeping the currently existing reactors safe was costing increasing amounts of money. Leuthard stressed the importance of taking a clear and fundamental decision. "We could lose precious time. A clear decision is an impulse for the economy, it will attract investment," she said.

Representatives of the right-wing Swiss People's Party called the cabinet’s phase-out decision a mistake, claiming it would not only destroy jobs and endanger businesses, but also put the security of energy supplies for the country at risk.

Ninety-nine of Switzerland's 246 parliamentarians are members of pro-nuclear interest groups. Most of them can be found in the ranks of the Swiss People's Party and the Liberals, but to a lesser extent also in the centre parties.

Nevertheless, most representatives of centre parties recently changed their opinions and started to support a nuclear opt-out. One explanation is obvious: parliamentary elections are up in autumn and public opinion in Switzerland on nuclear power has drastically shifted in the wake of the disaster in Japan.

A post-Fukushima survey showed that two-thirds of the Swiss voters objected to building new nuclear reactors, even if as a result electricity prices would rise. In comparison, less than a year ago, only half of the respondents rejected new power plants. The poll also showed that about a third of the interviewees supported a more or less immediate shutdown of Switzerland's nuclear reactors.

Nearly asleep before 'Fukushima', the country's anti-nuclear movement has gained increasing support. In May, a demonstration against nuclear reactors attracted more than 20,000 protesters. It was by far the largest anti-nuclear demonstration in Switzerland for 25 years.

Several smaller demonstrations took place, too. In Bern, for the past two months activists have been squatting a park facing the headquarters of BKW, the operator of several power plants, including a disputed nuclear reactor in the town of Mühleberg.

The shift in public opinion and popular pressure left their traces on Wednesday's debate in the National Council. After long discussions, a majority of the representatives voted in favour of a nuclear phase- out.

The powerful Swiss business federation 'Economiesuisse' reacted with disappointment. The country's largest umbrella organisation representing the interests of Swiss businesses has been the fiercest opponent of the cabinet's new energy strategy. It has argued that the effects of a nuclear opt-out on the national economy weren't considered by the cabinet, that its costs would be larger than estimated and that the potential of renewable energy and electricity imports was being overestimated.

Meanwhile, a much smaller economic association representing leading clean-tech companies welcomed the National Council's decision. "From an economic point of view, it's the only right way," Swiss Cleantech president Nick Beglinger said. The organisation is aware of the difficulties and costs of the envisaged turnaround in energy policy, but states that they're outbalanced by the emerging opportunities.

Beglinger is convinced that phasing out of nuclear power could even go along with fighting climate change. Swiss Cleantech regards halving the overall energy consumption of Switzerland by 2050 based on raising efficiency as realistic. Boosting alternative energies is seen as another key to success.

Switzerland's small area however could be the source of obstacles on the way to boosting renewable energy such as hydro, wind or solar power. The construction of water supply dams in the mountains for example has often sparked resistance from local residents and environmental organisations. The latter though may soon be silenced by the law, as the National Council has decided to limit their tools to block or delay the construction of energy-related projects.

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

"Music Runs Into Walls"

In the West Bank, dissident voices questioning the Palestinian Authority's increasingly authoritarian rule have become rare. But a young musician in Ramallah refuses to hold his tongue.

Old houses are torn down in Ramallah by bulldozers to make way for fancy restaurants, shopping malls, office buildings and apartment blocks. The Palestinian Authority's headquarters are being rebuilt, too. The compound looks like a fortress. Nearby, the 28-level Palestine Trade Tower is nearing completion. Soon it will host luxury offices, a high-end hotel and a cinema.

Six or seven years ago, when most West Bank cities were still up in arms against Israeli occupation, Ramallah had already been pacified. Fancy cars and trendy boutiques conquered its downtown area. In one of the new restaurants sits a young Palestinian music composer going by the name 'Boikutt'.

"It's very confusing to live in Ramallah," says the 25-years old. "It's like a bubble." He feels that people are living in the illusion of being free, even though Ramallah is still an occupied town surrounded by checkpoints and the separation wall. "When you drive just 10 minutes in any direction you'll realise you're in a prison," Boikutt says.

The waitress has come over to ask for orders. In English. Boikutt answers in Arabic. However she, a Palestinian woman in her twenties, insists on speaking English. As she walks away, Boikutt meaningfully raises his eyebrows. "Ramallah has become very different and separated from other Palestinian cities." The restaurant next door doesn't even serve Arabic coffee any more.

Israeli tanks occupying the streets of Ramallah in 2002, threatening to shoot at anyone who'd walk in the street, pushed Boikutt to compose his first track called 'Under Curfew’. In 2003, Boikutt, his brother 'Aswatt' and 'Stormtrap' established the music collective 'Ramallah Underground'. The group's experimental approach resulted in a distinct musical outcome, combining trip-hop, hip-hop, downtempo and traditional Arabic music.

Most of their initial tracks dealt with life under Israeli occupation. As Israeli army presence inside Ramallah decreased, the Palestinian Authority (PA) emerged as a new target of their rhymes. In the artists' opinion, one oppressor had just replaced another: "They robbed us / Took away our land, our country / Defeated / Turning on us / They convinced us / Trained to defend Israel from us / We're being controlled / Soldiers everywhere / But tell me who is this all for?"

Boikutt says he has been being imprisoned twice: "There's the Israeli Apartheid wall, resulting in an open-air prison. And then there's the rule of the PA and its police forces that are placed at every corner of Ramallah. They're constantly controlling us, even though we're just roaming within our own prison."

While as in several Arab countries regimes were toppled by popular uprisings, the PA has so far successfully suffocated anything similar in the West Bank. The Authority's repression of dissident voices and political opponents has led to an atmosphere where "people know where the limits are," says Boikutt.

The so-called March 15 movement which pushed for ending the division between Hamas and Fatah indicated, though, that many young Palestinians are fed up with the ruling political class. "The PA has allowed the protests to happen as long as they were under control," Boikutt says. "That's the maximum to where you can go."

The young musician considers it a shame that most Palestinian artists are voicing criticism only very softly. In contrast, Ramallah Underground's rhymes are quite explicit: "Civil riots, because the cops are pissing me off / As if the Apartheid wall isn't enough / Now they put a virus into my country."

Boikutt is asking people to start some kind of a third Intifadah. "Its goal would be to disrupt the colonial machine and all of its pieces." Indeed, many Palestinians consider the current security coordination between Israel, the U.S. and the PA a form of collaboration with the enemy. As cables published by WikiLeaks have shown, the PA has been eager to "keep the coordination out of the public eye." So far, the PA has succeeded in keeping the security situation calm, thereby protecting Israel's interests.

"Maybe the only way to actually reach the coloniser is to get rid of the one who's holding you back," Boikutt says. In the track "Prison within a Prison", Stormtrap raps: "While leaders masturbate for one another / Settlements multiply, grow, and expand! / Want to solve the problem? / Dismantle our government! / Maybe then we can start something."

Ramallah Underground spread its work mostly through the Internet. "Considering the isolated geographical position of Ramallah, it's been very important," Boikutt says. Even though he raps in Arabic, reaching the domestic audience is difficult. Due to Israeli restrictions, staging a concert in nearby Jerusalem for example is impossible. "Performing in Europe is much easier," he points out.

In 2009, Ramallah Underground split up. Besides doing solo performances, Boikutt started a new project along with Basel Abbas and Ruanne Abou-Rahme, two installation-based artists working with sound and video. Their project is called 'Tashweesh', which means interference. The group's name is its programme.

Tashweesh focusses on live performances. Boikutt admits that performing in public spaces or streets is quite difficult. "Ramallah is being destroyed by urban development. Public spaces have become rare," he says. Performing in commercial places is unavoidable. Boikutt regrets that there, mostly members of the local elite attend, while by-passers or those who don't belong to the scene, don't.

One his greatest performances was when he performed in a parking lot and people spontaneously joined in, the rapper tells. "You know, they didn't come to be entertained, but because they were actually interested in what they were hearing."

Having his dissident voice being heard isn't easy nowadays. For many Palestinians, materialist desires have become more important than the political struggle for liberation. In one of his recent tracks, Boikutt raps: "Let them wait for foreign aid until they die / Drive around with their expensive cars / Inside the Apartheid wall, until they enter into mazes." The rhyme ends with the sound of a car crashing.

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service.

"Interview: Raja Khalidi on the Neoliberal Consensus in Palestine"

Earlier this month, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO) each published reports backing the Palestinian Authority statehood program. They claim that from an institutional point of view, the PA is ready for the establishment of a state in the near future.

In August 2009, the PA published a strategy paper called “Ending the Occupation, Establishing the State.” The Palestinian statehood program states that the establishment of a Palestinian state within two years “is not only possible, it is essential.” The PA stresses the building of “strong state institutions capable of providing for the needs of our citizens, despite the occupation.” As concerns the economic system, “Palestine shall be based on the principles of a free market economy,” the program states.
Recently, Palestinian economists Raja Khalidi and Sobhi Samour published a highly critical article on the PA’s neoliberal policies in the Journal of Palestine Studies entitled “Neoliberalism as Liberation: The Statehood Program and the Remaking of the Palestinian National Movement.” Khalidi and Samour argue that the statehood program “cannot succeed either as a midwife of independence or as a strategy for Palestinian economic development.” They claim that the PA is offering the Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank “a program predicated upon delivering growth and prosperity without any strategy for resistance or challenge to the parameters of occupation.”

The Electronic Intifada contributor Ray Smith interviewed Raja Khalidi, a senior economist with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), about the PA’s economic policies and its implications for statehood. The views expressed in this interview do not represent those of the UN secretariat.

Ray Smith: How do you feel about the unanimous praise from those leading international institutions?

Raja Khalidi: Such reports don’t make me especially happy, and I do have concerns about their veracity. There’s a big contrast between those statements and the political reality on the ground and there are several problems with these assessments. They claim that the PA is now above the “threshold” for establishing a functioning state, that it has met these institutions’ various criteria for statehood eligibility. There’s a general problem in this sort of generic template approach to evaluating complex governance issues, wherever they might be. In the Palestinian case the real problem is that such criteria and arbitrary thresholds are irrelevant to the reality and to the big elephant in the room of Palestinian governance, namely the Israeli occupation.
So today, what actually matters is: what happens in September when all that changes, when at best the formal diplomatic status becomes the “State of Palestine”? What’s going to make this virtual state turn into a real state? Nobody seems to be addressing that. All the talk is about polishing this virtual state, reforming and fixing it, adding services here, privatizing there, saving money here and cutting budgets there. It’s like the manner in which donors and international institutions approach the performance of a normal middle-income country. The PA seems to assume that by the will of the people, the citizens who proved themselves being capable of respecting traffic signals, paying electricity bills and not carrying guns in public, statehood will “impose itself.” Somehow statehood “just arrives” in September because technically everything is ready.

RS: According to recent reports, Palestine seems to be doing quite well in economic terms. Is it?

RK: Well, we’re certainly witnessing an “economic bubble.” We saw this before in the 1980s and the 1990s, but the bubbles eventually burst or were crushed by Israeli tanks. Economic growth of 9 percent in 2010 was largely fueled by donors, aid and private investment recovery in the West Bank, as well as the booming illicit tunnel economy in Gaza. It’s no secret that “growth” is mainly taking place in Areas A and B, and not in Area C, the south of the West Bank and the Jordan valley, while Gaza and Jerusalem anyway are effectively excluded from the growth map. So it’s about half of the Palestinian people under occupation who are actually enjoying the economic recovery. [Editorial note: Under the Oslo accords, the occupied West Bank is split into three zones: Areas A, B and C. The PA has security control over Area A, and shares control with Israel over B. Area C, which accounts for 60 percent of the West Bank, is under Israeli control.]
The focus on reaching the threshold for statehood wasn’t a total waste of time. It certainly helped to organize, if nothing else, the image of a functioning state. All at the risk though that the PA will satisfy itself with the image of a functioning state and “citizens” will acquiesce in what appears a normal life. Welcome to Palestinian “economic peace!” Palestinians basically have to settle for that and dress it up as much as possible for an indefinite future without any scope for real economic policy-making that goes beyond service delivery and helps to create the conditions for ending occupation, rather than for coexisting with it. So, as a development economist, I’m instinctively wary of bubbles such as this, especially taking into account the specific historic trends and structural changes that preclude such growth from being developmental.

RS: Do you have any other concerns?

RK: Yes indeed, my second point is: There’s an assumption that things are so much better institutionally than they were in 2000 or 2005. Had these institutions been in place back then, what would have prevented the state from being functional? If you recall Oslo, the state was supposed to be established by the end of the 1990s. Five years were considered to be enough. It was assumed that whatever was in place could be turned into a state in one way or the other. Of course, today public finance transparency is improved, but ultimately the control of finance is still in the hands of one person, as it was under the supposedly corrupt [late Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman] Yasser Arafat. The main public institutions certainly function. They provide their services. But they were doing that before, too! It’s not as if they weren’t delivering services ten or five years ago or that what was preventing the state from being established was such a weakness.
According to the whole institutional reform scorecard that the PA and the donors are keeping, by such criteria, it’s only now that the Palestinian right of national self-determination may be addressed, since the Palestinians have now shown that they can govern themselves. So, does mean that the reason they haven’t been able to do so ever since 1988, when they first declared their independent state in accordance with UN resolutions, was because of their own institutional failings, which took the past twenty years to address? This is an unhelpful diversion from the real focus that is required for effective state-building and managing economic development of a war-torn economy.
My third concern is about the sort of economy that’s being established. Let’s assume that by September there’s a Palestinian state running and Israel withdraws. What sort of economy are they thinking about? They’re talking about a very open trade system, perpetuation of the Paris Protocol framework and so-called “customs union,” compliance with World Trade Organization standards, no autonomous monetary or macroeconomic policy, fiscal responsibility, etc. But you don’t need an UNCTAD economist to tell you that this is the wrong approach for such a situation.

RS: According to the latest figures, manufacturing output has declined. What are the implications of this trend for the future of the Palestinian economy?

RK: We at UNCTAD have estimated that about one third of the productive capacity that existed prior to the second intifada was lost. Certainly industry has to be invested in as part of strengthening the components of domestic demand. I don’t see any of that happening in Palestine, except anecdotally in certain niche sectors. Why not? How do you come out of a conflict with a war-torn economy wanting your state to stand on its own feet, if it has not domestic industrial productive capacity? All these reports show that there’s hardly been any change in the high unemployment and poverty rates. So, propagating export-led growth and development is simply wrong. It has not worked in the Palestinian context and it only worked for others in very different stages of development. It may come later, but definitely not now. Also, if in September we’re going to have something like a Palestinian state, its access to markets will totally remain in the hands of Israel. So, what sort of export-led growth are we talking about? All the recent experiences of neoliberal market fundamentalism around the world and many experiences of export-led growth strategies in similarly weak economies in Africa, not to mention North Africa, have evidently failed, and in the latter they’ve done so spectacularly! Yet, the PA is making plans for such an economy. There’s a saying that fits the case perfectly: “They are going to the Hajj when all the pilgrims are coming back.”

RS: What are the key pillars of the PA’s neoliberal agenda?

RK: In the West Bank at least, neoliberalism has permeated pretty much every area of economic policy and social life. Of all the options available in its fiscal, trade, monetary, labor, industrial or foreign investment attraction policy, the PA chose the neoliberal path, for example pursuing full integration with the Israeli economy or liberalizing our trade regime to the maximum. Export-led development, as I’ve mentioned before, is said to be the only optimal policy for developing countries and integration with the more advanced Israeli economy the best option. There’s an assumption that such a development strategy will allow integration with the long-term trend of the Israeli economy whereby the statistics brutally show that income divergence is the only sure trend in Palestinian-Israeli economic relations for forty years.
Indeed, if we look at the Arab economy in Israel since 1948, basically the relation of Palestinian economic resources to Israeli capital and development prerequisites is the same. Furthermore there is this all pervasive discourse about the need for the Palestinian state to enable “private sector led growth.” This is a bit of a canard since the Palestinian public sector is non-existent as an economic agent and nowadays, there’s hardly anything left to privatize. Yet ordinary people suffer from privatization.
Let’s take electricity distribution as an example. Go to the Jordan Valley or to the south of the West Bank at night and you’ll see hillsides of villages using candle light. Prepaid electricity meters were forcibly introduced as part of the PA budget pruning exercises in line with Washington consensus provisions, but of course many poor people can’t pay and the usual “social safety nets” are simply neglected.
In my opinion the blind adoption of such a policy agenda is one of the PA’s most grievous mistakes; indeed, it is inimical to development and liberation, the two things the Palestinian people need above all. What does the Palestinian economy need? It needs to be rebuilt. The productive capacity needs to be reconstituted deliberately and investment accordingly directed. Sustainable revival can’t simply be market-led. Decisions have to be made: What sort of industry do we want? What sort of agriculture? What about food security? What about natural resources: the natural gas fields, the Dead Sea resources, water? Where is the policy and what are the institutions of the sovereign independent Palestinian state to deal with these strategic aspects of national economic security?

RS: When did the neoliberal turn begun?

RK: It’s going back to the 1990s, to the Madrid Peace Conference, the Oslo peace process, globalization and the incremental involvement of the international financial institutions in Palestine. Particularly the World Bank and increasingly the IMF have left their traces in the policy-making elites’ way of thinking. And of course Prime Minister [Salam] Fayyad’s own background matters: he comes from the IMF, while the CEO of the Palestinian Investment Fund, Muhamad Mustafa, was bred in the World Bank next door. I don’t blame them since they really can only think of these issues in that same frame of reference. But it’s surprising however that there’s so little alternative economic thinking coming out of Palestine. On everything else, in terms of activism, human rights, civil society engagement, etc., there’s intellectual thinking and Palestine remains a vibrant avant garde. So why is it that only a few people question the PA’s neoliberal approach? That’s why Sobhi Samour and I wrote that article in the Journal of Palestine Studies. Things are so obvious, but nobody says anything about it and we felt that it needed to be said, in this case by two Palestinian economists.

RS: How do force, consent and persuasion work in the Palestinian context?

RK: The emphasis on the Palestinian reform, institutional building, development expenditures and showcasing has provided the security component, especially the successful partnering with US military trainers and the Israeli army in securing a “calm” in the West Bank since 2007, presumably bringing down the military burden and cost of occupation in the process. Also, after all these years of unsuccessful struggle, modernization, transition to some kind of normalcy, peace and normal life is very appealing and persuasive, while PA jobs sustain a hard core of at least a third of the employed — that’s quite a constituency for persuasion!
Consent goes further than that in the sense that there are elites who were waiting for this kind of situation. In the West Bank there are plenty of building contractors, luxury service providers, property developers and speculators who are currently making good money, while in Gaza a new elite of several hundred entrepreneurs and rent seekers has arisen through the illicit tunnel economy. I think all of these are important supporters of the current “consensus.”

RS: Does the division between Fatah and Hamas contribute to this?

RK: With regard to the West Bank, the division certainly has been a facilitating factor. With Hamas involved in policy-making, this agenda would have faced a lot more resistance, as the resulting poverty and unemployment would have caused unrest and political pressure among Hamas’ constituency. However, there’s currently a lot going on in the region, as people reject authoritarian rule. As much as these revolutions were political, they’ve been socioeconomic ones, too. This wave will hit Palestine in one way or the other regardless of the dilemma of what to do with the occupation.

RS: What about the Palestinian 15 March movement that seeks to end the division?

RK: The younger generation doesn’t trust anybody, I think. The 15 March movement, even though it’s quite small, indicates that many youth have lost respect for Hamas, Fatah or the PA under Fayyad. It’s a generational issue, too. Among the middle class, there’s of course some dependency. Also, there’s a very powerful entrepreneurial capitalist class. It’s the people involved in these big development projects like the industrial estates, model cities and gated communities or gas projects. This class has certainly flourished under this PA, but even before they’ve done quite well. These people have a big stake in keeping the whole thing working. I haven’t seen much of major long-term investment projects though. Basically it’s residential construction. The level of construction and its share in the gross domestic product has traditionally been high in Palestine, even in the 1980s. But it just takes one Israeli tank in Ramallah to bring all these billboards, glass fronts and traffic signs down. Just one tank and it’s finished. Let’s hope that it doesn’t end like that.

This report was first published here by Electronic Intifada.

"Nablus Stands Beautiful and Unvisited"

Palestine experiences a boom in tourism, as herds of tourists storm the cities of Jerusalem, Jericho and Bethlehem. Meanwhile, the West Bank city of Nablus, rich in historic and religious sites, hardly attracts visitors.

"It's an ancient city with a magnificent old town. It's home to Jacob's Well, the Samaritans and Sabastiya." Salem Hantoli, manager of Nablus' al-Yasmeen hotel, praises the various tourist attractions of Nablus, a city with 126,000 inhabitants in the northern West Bank. Al-Yasmeen, the second largest of Nablus' four hotels, has 45 beds and 16 employees.

"Before the second Intifada, our city used to be a major destination for religious tourism," recalls Abdelafo S. Aker, public relations officer at Nablus' municipality, adding that after the uprising, the siege and the closures, tourists have become rare in Nablus.

In 2009 only 7,170 hotel guests were counted in the whole Nablus governorate as compared to 451,840 in the West Bank as a whole, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). For 2010, figures aren't available yet.

Hotel manager Hantoli says that in 2008 things started to improve. "The year 2009 was even better, and 2010 was a boom." Al-Yasmeen's occupancy rates and revenue have reached new heights.

The hotel's improving performance has to be considered in the light of the extreme slump during the Intifada, however. "For at least five years, our occupancy rate was no more than 10 to 15 percent," the hotel manager remembers. Even now, 80 percent of his guests belong to the alternative tourism sector, visitors with political interests. "Lately, but very slowly, we start to have people coming only for tourism."

A contributing factor has been the easing of entry restrictions to Nablus since 2009. The city has been under strict closure for seven years and the Israeli army often denied foreigners passage through the checkpoints surrounding the city. "The slight increase in tourism is largely domestic though, it's visitors from the West Bank and Israel," says municipality officer Aker. In terms of international tourism, no big shift could be noticed.

Aker points at Israeli measures as the main obstacle to attracting more international tourists. "When at Ben Gurion Airport you tell them you're planning to visit Nablus, they'll recommend you not going there because the city 'isn't safe’. And surely they'll make it harder for you to actually enter Israel," says Aker.

During the Intifada, Nablus and its three refugee camps were strongholds of armed resistance to Israeli occupation. Clashes, massive Israeli army raids, targeted killings and long curfews were part of everyday life. Israeli propaganda further contributed to the city's image as a chaotic and dangerous place.

In Nablus, efforts are under way to change the city's bad reputation. In 2007, the Palestinian Authority (PA) began to deploy police forces. Armed resistance has vanished and Israeli raids have become less frequent. They usually take place after midnight and are coordinated with the PA. Nablus representative Aker says that the much improved law enforcement has led to stability. "There's no reason any more not to visit Nablus," he concludes.

Yet local hotels are facing another problem. While in all other parts of Palestine, hotel guests stay for an average of two nights, in the northern West Bank they do so for less than 1.5 nights. Tour operators usually bring visitors only at daytime, while they spend their nights in Israeli hotels. Hantoli says that it's also the operators’ responsibility to better link Palestinian sites. "Unfortunately, most of them still solely focus on Jerusalem, Jericho and Bethlehem," he regrets.

Nablus lacks a competitive tourist infrastructure. "You can't just jump to tourism," PR officer Aker says. "We lack hotels, restaurants and experienced staff," he tells. Attracting investment, however, depends on stability. Even though things have calmed down, military raids could still occur and at any point, closure may be imposed and access to Nablus be interrupted. The Israeli army remains a factor of uncertainty.

Huge potential is seen in the reconstruction and renovation of Nablus' historic old town, likely the city's main attraction. During the April 2002 'Battle of Nablus' and several other big Israeli army invasions, the old town has suffered heavy damage. Several mosques, churches and traditional olive oil soap factories such as the Kanaan and the Nabulsi factory were totally destroyed, while other sites such as the Ottoman-area Turkish bathhouse 'Hammam as-Shifa' and the massive Abdelhadi Palace were severely damaged.

"By developing and renovating the old town, there'd be even more reason for tourists to actually spend more than just a few hours in the city," explains Salem Hantoli at al-Yasmeen Hotel. The municipality along with Palestinian and international partners is working on restoring some sites and alleys in the old town. Renovation work is noticeable, but remains quite scattered.

"Our financial resources are very limited in comparison to the needs on the ground," says the municipality's representative Abdelafo S. Aker. The immense destruction of private property left hundreds of the old town's 20,000 residents homeless. Sheltering and assisting them became a priority, while the protection of cultural heritage had to wait. "Also, infrastructure projects such as water, sewage or electricity have been our immediate priorities," explains Aker.

In the heart of the old town, Nasir Arafat directs a non-governmental organisation called 'Civil Society of Nablus Governorate'. "We used to pay the rent of people whose houses were destroyed or uninhabitable," says Arafat. Nowadays, the organisation is busy assisting people in renovating and rebuilding their private homes under the aspect of humanitarian aid.

During the interview residents pop in, listing up their needs and asking for money. "We're not fast enough, because we're lacking money," Arafat regrets. "Still more than 200 houses are in need of reconstruction."

Not far from Arafat's office lies the huge Tuqan palace. During the 18th century, the Tuqan clan nearly controlled all of Nablus and its hinterland. The palace is mostly neglected and its back garden now looks like a jungle. Obviously, restoration efforts would have to be a massive undertaking.

Members of the Tuqan family say it's beyond their financial scope. As time passed, the clan's wealth trickled down through several generations and dispersed. Goats are now grazing where once Nablus' powerful elite ruled.

This report was first published here by IPS Inter Press Service and republished by the Daily Star.